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# CORPUS-0001
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## Oil From Ostia To Capua: Basic Venture
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### Status: Training Corpus Seed
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### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples
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### Purpose: Teach a first worked venture by combining place, local price, total cost, profit, delay, and risk
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### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0001-oil-ostia-to-capua-basic-venture.md
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---
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## 0. Scenario
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A trader in Ostia considers sending oil to Capua.
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He has heard that oil sells for more in Capua than in Ostia.
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This is not enough to prove profit.
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The trader must compare local prices, total costs, delay, and risk before deciding.
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---
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## 1. Known Facts
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| Fact | Value |
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|---|---:|
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| Origin | Ostia |
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| Destination | Capua |
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| Good | oil |
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| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses |
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| Expected sale price in Capua | 18 asses |
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| Porterage and handling | 2 asses |
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| Cart share | 3 asses |
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| Storage before departure | 1 as |
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| Handling at Capua | 1 as |
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---
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## 2. First Incorrect Calculation
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A weak model may calculate:
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```text
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18 - 10 = 8 asses profit
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```
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This is wrong because it subtracts only purchase price.
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It ignores movement, storage, and handling.
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---
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## 3. Total Cost Calculation
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Total cost includes every cost required to make the oil available for sale in Capua.
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```text
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purchase price: 10 asses
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porterage and handling: 2 asses
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cart share: 3 asses
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storage: 1 as
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Capua handling: 1 as
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--------------------------------
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total cost: 17 asses
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```
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---
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## 4. Actual Profit Calculation
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```text
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sale value - total cost = profit
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18 asses - 17 asses = 1 as profit
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```
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The venture is profitable, but only barely.
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A one-as profit may not justify the risk unless the trader has no better option or expects future benefit.
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---
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## 5. Unknowns
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The trader still does not know:
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- whether the Capua price is current
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- whether a rival shipment will arrive first
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- whether the cart leaves on time
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- whether the oil leaks or breaks
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- whether storage costs rise
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- whether the buyer can pay
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- whether the trader misses a better opportunity
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The arithmetic is only the beginning.
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---
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## 6. Risk Variants
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### Variant A — Delay
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If the cart is delayed and storage rises by 2 asses:
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```text
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new total cost = 19 asses
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sale value = 18 asses
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result = 1 as loss
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```
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### Variant B — Rival Arrival
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If a rival arrives first and Capua buyers lower offers to 15 asses:
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```text
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sale value = 15 asses
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total cost = 17 asses
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result = 2 asses loss
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```
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### Variant C — Better Sale Price
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If demand rises and the oil sells for 22 asses:
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```text
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sale value = 22 asses
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total cost = 17 asses
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result = 5 asses profit
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```
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---
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## 7. Correct Model Behavior
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The model should reason:
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- trade requires Ostia and Capua
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- the two cities may have different local prices
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- purchase price is not total cost
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- profit is sale value minus total cost
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- delay can erase profit
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- rival action can change destination price
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- expected profit is not actual profit until settlement
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---
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## 8. Incorrect Model Behavior
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The model should not:
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- assume one universal oil price
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- calculate profit from purchase price alone
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- ignore cart, porterage, storage, or handling
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- treat the expected Capua price as certain
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- assume the opportunity remains open indefinitely
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- ignore rival traders
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- treat a barely profitable venture as safe
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---
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## 9. Layer-0 Concepts Used
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This example uses:
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- `CORPUS-0001-trade-requires-two-locations`
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- `CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices`
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- `CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price`
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- `CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost`
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- `CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
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- `CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
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- `CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
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---
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## 10. Success Condition
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If the model sees a simple trade and automatically asks about location, total cost, timing, and risk before declaring profit, this file is functioning correctly.
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