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 # DIALOGUE-PROLOGUE-0013
 ## The Shipwreck Survivor — Canonical Draft
 ### Status: Canonical Dialogue Draft
 ### Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant)
 ### Purpose: Prologue scenario teaching marine risk, salvage claims, fraud suspicion, distress pricing, witness value, and how disaster stories become markets.
 ### Repository Path: docs/scenarios/DIALOGUE-PROLOGUE-0013.md
 ---
 ## 0. Design Intent
 A battered sailor reaches Ostia claiming his vessel was wrecked offshore.
 No cargo has arrived. No body has been confirmed. No magistrate yet rules.
 Yet creditors awaken, insurers panic, relatives hope, rivals smile politely, and traders begin pricing goods that may have sunk—or may be waiting elsewhere under another name.
 Known facts are uncertain:
 - genuine wreck or staged loss
 - full sinking or partial salvage
 - piracy, storm, grounding, or fraud
 - cargo destroyed or hidden
 - captain dead or absconded
 - survivor truthful, confused, or purchased
 The participant must learn that uncertain disaster can move markets before facts land.
 ---
 ## 1. Scene Constraints
 Location: harbor steps near pilot office, shrine, and marine tavern in Ostia, late morning.
 Primary signals:
 - injured survivor telling changing story
 - crowd gathering rapidly
 - lenders seeking manifests
 - relatives asking names
 - salvage crews being discussed
 - prices changing on goods believed lost
 Selection method: participant chooses whose interpretation to follow.
 ---
 ## 2. Opening Scene Draft
 The man smelled of salt, pitch, blood, and invention.
 Wrapped in borrowed blankets, one sandal missing, hair crusted white with dried spray, he sat on the harbor steps drinking watered wine as if it were medicine or strategy.
 Around him stood half the waterfront and the worst half of certainty.
 Marcus Atilius Varro stood where he could see the survivor, the pilot office door, and the road from the quays.
 Lucius Fabius Felix arrived smiling like a man hearing tragedy in small denominations.
 “No smoke, no riot, no edict,” Felix said. “Yet everyone running. Fine work.”
 Varro kept his eyes on the sailor.
 “He says a coastal freighter struck rocks south of the mouth.”
 “He says now.”
 Gaius Licinius Crispus approached carrying the expression of procedural hunger.
 “Name of vessel?”
 Felix answered first.
 “Depends who asks.”
 Crispus ignored him.
 Varro said, “He gave two names. One owner. Then another owner.”
 “Then concussion or fraud.”
 “Possibly both.”
 Quintus Cornelius Lentulus Minor arrived beneath a clean cloak that resented the harbor air.
 “I heard a grain ship was lost.”
 Felix laughed.
 “You heard because grain rises when spoken wet.”
 “It was said at breakfast.”
 “Then it is already overpriced.”
 Titus Varenus Secundus came from the pilot sheds carrying a broken oar peg.
 “Small freighter likely,” he said. “Not grain hull. Peg from river tender.”
 Varro nodded.
 “Useful.”
 Felix pointed.
 “There. Men bring evidence to gossip now.”
 A quiet voice came from behind the crowd.
 “Gossip pays transport.”
 Publius Terentius Chresimus stepped forward with two tablets and no sympathy wasted outwardly.
 “The survivor named cargo?”
 “Oil. Then wool. Then mixed amphorae,” Varro said.
 Chresimus nodded once.
 “Debt cargo.”
 Crispus turned.
 “Explain.”
 “Men who know their cargo speak first of cargo. Men who owe on cargo speak first of owners.”
 The sailor suddenly shouted that the captain had drowned heroically.
 Half the crowd crossed themselves in local fashion. The other half asked for the captain’s name.
 He gave none.
 Felix smiled.
 “Heroism without spelling. Efficient.”
 Lentulus frowned.
 “If men died, show respect.”
 “I am showing caution.”
 A fish seller nearby raised prices on imported garum immediately.
 Secundus noticed first.
 “There.”
 “What?” Crispus asked.
 “The first salvage.”
 Felix laughed.
 “No. The first prayer answered.”
 Varro watched the pilot office.
 “No harbor pilots moving.”
 “Because they are listening,” Secundus said.
 “Because they are bidding,” Chresimus corrected.
 A stout lender pushed through the crowd waving a wax tablet.
 “Was there blue cloth aboard? Answer carefully!”
 The sailor stared blankly.
 Felix admired him.
 “Either innocent or gifted.”
 Crispus said, “Witnesses must be separated.”
 Felix said, “There is only one witness.”
 “There are always more,” Chresimus said. “They simply arrive expensive.”
 Lentulus looked toward the sea road.
 “If a senator’s cargo were aboard, this would already be guarded.”
 Felix nodded.
 “So perhaps no senator lost anything. Comforting.”
 The sailor changed his story again.
 Now the wreck had burned.
 Varro spoke first.
 “Sea soaked. Then burned?”
 The sailor blinked.
 “Lightning.”
 Felix applauded softly.
 “The gods now testify.”
 Crispus stepped closer.
 “You will speak before an official.”
 The sailor looked alarmed.
 “Must I?”
 “Yes.”
 Felix leaned to Varro.
 “Fraud gains posture whenever clerks are mentioned.”
 Secundus pointed toward two tug crews arguing.
 “Salvage boats readying.”
 Varro said, “Before location known?”
 “Especially before location known.”
 Chresimus added:
 “First claim often belongs to first rope.”
 A woman arrived crying that her brother sailed that route.
 The crowd shifted again.
 Lentulus lowered his voice.
 “Now sympathy enters.”
 Felix replied quietly.
 “And accuracy leaves.”
 A spice merchant shuttered his stall and sent a runner inland.
 Crispus noticed.
 “Why?”
 Chresimus answered first.
 “If the lost vessel carried pepper, buy inland stock now.”
 “If it did not?”
 “Sell later anyway.”
 Varro asked, “What matters most?”
 Secundus answered:
 “Exact rocks. Tide state. Hull size. Available tow crews.”
 Lentulus said, “Owner name.”
 Crispus said, “Sworn statement.”
 Felix said, “Believability.”
 Chresimus said, “Who benefits if found late.”
 They all looked at him.
 “If cargo truly exists, delay favors buyers of claims.”
 The pilot office door opened.
 An official emerged with two scribes and immediate annoyance.
 Crispus straightened at once.
 “At last.”
 Felix sighed.
 “The funeral of spontaneity.”
 The official demanded silence.
 No one obeyed.
 Varro stepped toward the steps.
 “I’ll get the route, rocks, and tide.”
 Secundus moved with him.
 “I’ll secure a boat before rates triple.”
 Lentulus adjusted his cloak.
 “I will learn the owner and any family standing.”
 Crispus drew himself up.
 “I will formalize testimony.”
 Felix turned toward the market lane.
 “I will buy every good now rumored drowned.”
 Chresimus tied his tablets.
 “I will learn who insured cargo no one has yet seen.”
 Felix looked back once.
 “Six men. One survivor. None of us discussing mercy.”
 Varro answered without turning.
 “We are discussing what his story moves.”
 ---
 ## 3. Choice Presentation
 > The sea has delivered one man and many rumors. Whose reading of the steps do you trust?
 | Choice | Background |
 |---|---|
 | Follow Varro to verify route, tide, and practical facts. | Former Legionary |
 | Follow Felix to trade on fear and false scarcity. | Freedman Trader |
 | Follow Lentulus to identify owners, names, and status exposure. | Noble Younger Son |
 | Follow Crispus to seize testimony, claims, and legal leverage. | Failed Magistrate |
 | Follow Secundus to organize salvage, boats, and recovery crews. | Camp Logistician |
 | Follow Chresimus to trace insurance, debt, and who profits from uncertainty. | Guild Scribe |
 ---
 ## 4. What This Scene Teaches
 - Disaster rumors can move prices immediately.
 - Witness testimony has economic value.
 - Salvage rights may matter before truth is known.
 - Creditors and insurers react faster than mourners.
 - False loss claims can be profitable.
 - Physical verification often lags market reaction.
 ---
 ## 5. Canonical Success Condition
 If the participant stops asking:
 “Did the ship sink?”
 and starts asking:
 “Who gains while no one knows?”
 then this dialogue is functioning correctly.