7.2 KiB
RUMOR-SYSTEM-0001
Rumor, Information Delay, and Informal Markets
Status: Canonical Economy Seed
Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant)
Purpose: Define how uncertain information moves through the city, alters prices, creates opportunity, and misleads actors
Repository Path: docs/economy/RUMOR-SYSTEM-0001.md
0. Design Intent
Markets do not wait for certainty.
Most economic decisions are made before facts are known. Men act on smoke, absences, raised voices, late carts, unusual purchases, and guarded expressions.
This document prevents a false simulation where all actors receive perfect information at the same time.
In OTIVM:
- rumor is an economic input
- ignorance has geography
- truth arrives unevenly
- reputation alters belief
- opportunity often exists only during confusion
1. Definition of Rumor
Rumor is not merely falsehood.
Rumor is socially transmitted, incomplete information with uncertain accuracy.
It may be true, partly true, outdated, intentionally distorted, a misinterpreted signal, or speculation mistaken for fact.
A rumor can move markets even when false.
2. Why Rumor Matters Economically
Before official confirmation:
- prices move
- buyers hesitate
- lenders tighten terms
- hoarding begins
- labour shifts districts
- transport reroutes
- opportunists buy quietly
The first reaction is often based on rumor, not truth.
3. Primary Sources of Rumor in Ostia
| Source Node | Typical Information |
|---|---|
| BALNEA | status shifts, meetings, disputes, political whispers |
| riverfront | arriving cargo, delays, losses, foreign news |
| HORREA | shortages, inventory pressure, distress selling |
| workshops | fires, wages, tool scarcity, output decline |
| taverns / cauponae | labour news, theft, street violence |
| legal forum | debts, seizures, petitions, enforcement |
| stables / yards | cart shortages, route condition, mule health |
| households / servants | private affairs entering public speech |
No source is perfectly reliable.
4. Information Classes
| Class | Meaning |
|---|---|
| signal | directly observed fact, such as visible smoke |
| report | witness says event occurred |
| inference | likely consequence guessed from fact |
| embellishment | dramatic additions |
| agenda_rumor | shaped to benefit speaker |
| denial | false minimization or concealment |
Example:
Smoke over forge = signal.
“The owner fled with debts” = rumor.
5. Core Parameters
| Token | Type | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| rumor_velocity | city | speed of spread |
| rumor_accuracy | scenario | closeness to truth |
| source_credibility | actor/relation | trustworthiness of speaker |
| information_delay | relation | days before actor hears usable news |
| distortion_rate | city | tendency of message to mutate |
| market_sensitivity | city/good | how quickly prices react |
| speech_weight | actor | how strongly others believe speaker |
| secrecy_pressure | scenario | incentives to hide truth |
6. Speech Weight
Not all voices carry equally.
A claim from a respected man may outweigh three correct claims from porters.
Speech weight affected by:
- AVCTORITAS
- FAMA
- office held
- wealth display
- proven past accuracy
- group prejudice
- confidence of delivery
Thus:
A freedman may know first.
A noble may be believed first.
7. Information Delay
Truth moves through time.
Example: Capua timber fire.
| Actor | Delay |
|---|---|
| contractor courier | 1–2 days |
| connected merchant | 2–4 days |
| ordinary market trader | 3–6 days |
| distant rural buyer | longer |
The actor with shorter delay can profit.
8. Distortion Mechanics
As stories move, they mutate.
distance ↑ -> distortion ↑
retellings ↑ -> distortion ↑
panic ↑ -> distortion ↑
political_interest ↑ -> distortion ↑
trusted_witness_present -> distortion ↓
multiple_independent_reports -> distortion ↓
Example:
Small warehouse fire becomes “entire district lost.”
9. Price Reaction Model
price_change =
scarcity_expectation
+ fear
+ hoarding
+ transport_uncertainty
- trusted_reassurance
- visible_replacement_supply
Meaning:
Even false rumors can raise prices if believed long enough.
10. Merchant Use Cases
10.1 Good Use
Actor asks:
- what is certainly known?
- who benefits from this story?
- what second-order shortage follows?
- who has independent confirmation?
- how long before truth spreads?
10.2 Bad Use
Actor asks only:
- is it true?
This is too narrow. Even false rumors can create real temporary opportunity.
11. Example: Bronze Forge Fire
Immediate Known Signal
Smoke visible.
Rumors Within Hours
- bronze forge destroyed
- owner insolvent
- sabotage by iron interests
- workers dead
- stock saved secretly
- magistrate forcing sale
Rational Merchant Questions
- tool supply reduced?
- rebuild timber demand rising?
- creditors exposed?
- iron substitute demand imminent?
- who knows the stock survived?
12. Example Dialogue Logic
“I heard the forge burned.”
Low value statement.
“I saw smoke, three collapsed beams, and carts removing molds.”
High value statement.
“I sold nails before noon.”
Highest value statement — reveals belief through action.
13. Roman Land and Physical Detail in Rumor
Rumor often uses concrete measures.
Use Roman units:
- IUGERUM (land area)
- PASSUS (distance)
- LIBRA (weight)
- MODIVS (dry measure)
Example:
“They mean to plant six iugera behind the forge for shaft wood.”
This is stronger than vague speech.
Specificity increases believability, even when false.
14. Social Filtering by Background
| Background | Hears Best |
|---|---|
| Former Legionary | movement disruption, guard failures |
| Freedman Trader | distress selling, salvage, street truth |
| Noble Younger Son | family scandal, patron moves |
| Failed Magistrate | debts, permits, seizures |
| Camp Logistician | shortages, carts, labour demand |
| Guild Scribe | insolvency, collateral, unpaid accounts |
Same city, different information worlds.
15. Simulation Rules
Do Not Give Perfect Knowledge
Actors should infer, not receive certainty.
Do Not Make Rumor Pure Randomness
Rumor must emerge from actual events, incentives, and networks.
Do Not Make Truth Instantly Win
Falsehood can dominate briefly.
Reward Verification
Independent confirmation should create advantage.
16. Relations
rumor_velocity ↑ -> price_adjustment_speed ↑
distortion_rate ↑ -> false_opportunity ↑
information_delay ↓ -> merchant_edge ↑
speech_weight ↑ -> market_reaction ↑
multiple_sources_confirm ↑ -> rumor_accuracy ↑
panic ↑ -> hoarding ↑
17. Repository Use
Internal simulation substrate. Not player-facing prose.
Use to support:
- prologue BALNEA dialogue
- city event reactions
- price shocks
- hidden information systems
- actor asymmetry
- scenario chaining
- merchant skill differentiation
18. Canonical Success Condition
If the participant stops asking:
“Is the rumor true?”
and starts asking:
“Who heard it first, who profits if believed, and what changes before certainty arrives?”
then this document is functioning correctly.