268 lines
6.6 KiB
Markdown
268 lines
6.6 KiB
Markdown
# SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0002
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## The Capuan Timber Yard Fire
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### Status: Canonical Scenario Seed
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### Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant)
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### Purpose: Merchant-opportunity scenario driven by destruction of upstream material stock, cascading shortages, and route-constrained arbitrage
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### Repository Path: docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0002.md
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---
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## 0. Design Intent
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Destruction of inputs creates wider cascades than destruction of finished goods.
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A timber yard fire affects construction, transport, agriculture, military logistics, and workshop recovery simultaneously. The participant should learn to think in dependencies rather than headlines.
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This scenario validates:
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- upstream choke-point logic
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- multi-sector shortage propagation
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- scenario compounding with 0001
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- route-constrained NEGOTIVM decisions
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- state demand distortion
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- time-sensitive arbitrage
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---
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## 1. Canonical Identifier
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| Field | Value |
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| Scenario ID | `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0002` |
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| Title | The Capuan Timber Yard Fire |
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| Token | `capuan_timber_yard_fire` |
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| Domain | merchant |
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| Repeatable | yes |
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| Hidden Truth Variants | yes |
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---
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## 2. Setting
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| Parameter | Value |
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|---|---|
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| Primary City | Capua |
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| Venture Route | Ostia -> Capua |
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| Site Type | timber seasoning / cutting / fabrication yard |
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| Stored Stock | planks, beams, wheel timber, handle blanks, wagon parts |
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| Strategic Context | routine military preparation and contractor demand |
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---
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## 3. Historical Basis
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Roman Italy required sustained timber flows for:
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- construction
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- carts and wheels
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- agricultural implements
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- scaffolding
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- river and coastal craft components
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- military logistics
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- fuel and charcoal production
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Contractor yards and timber depots plausibly stored seasoned stock for downstream use or onward shipment.
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This scenario is an analogue model, not a claim of a specific recorded Capuan incident.
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Confidence: Medium
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Sources: Roman logistics scholarship; transport studies; timber demand in antiquity.
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---
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## 4. Visible Event
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Night fire spreads through the Capuan timber yard.
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By sunrise:
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- plank stacks destroyed
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- beams charred or unusable
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- wheel stock lost
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- handle blanks consumed
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- sheds collapsed
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- carts trapped or burned
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- adjacent workshops disrupted
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- guards report suspicious movement or conflicting stories
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Public cause unresolved.
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---
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## 5. Hidden Cause Variants
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| Token | Description |
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| accidental_fire | lamp, spark, careless storage |
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| contractor_fraud | debt escape through loss |
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| rival_arson | competing supplier |
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| enemy_sabotage | hostile agents |
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| labor_revenge | wage dispute |
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| magistrate_pressure | coercive redevelopment |
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| theft_coverup | crime hidden by fire |
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Signals only. No certainty.
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---
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## 6. Immediate Effects (0–7 days)
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| Effect | Direction |
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| available timber stock | down |
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| carpentry throughput | down |
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| wheelwright capacity | down |
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| cart repair speed | down |
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| urgent buyers | up |
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| speculation | up |
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| rumor volume | up |
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---
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## 7. Secondary Effects (7–30 days)
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| Effect | Direction |
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| timber prices in Capua | up |
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| transport rates | up |
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| farm implement delays | up |
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| building delays | up |
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| substitute imports | up |
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| theft risk for lumber | up |
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| contractor credit stress | up |
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| state requisition pressure | possible |
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---
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## 8. Tertiary Effects (30+ days)
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| Effect | Direction |
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| regional forest extraction | up |
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| road congestion | up |
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| poor-quality substitutes used | possible |
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| migration of craftsmen | possible |
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| durable merchant contracts | possible |
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| local political realignment | possible |
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---
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## 9. Merchant Venture Logic (Ostia -> Capua)
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Merchant departs Ostia before Capua fully reprices.
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### Candidate Cargo Ventures
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| Cargo | Thesis |
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| nails / fasteners | rebuild demand |
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| bronze tools | carpentry recovery |
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| iron tools | substitute demand |
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| rope | hauling operations |
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| pitch / tar | treatment and repair |
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| wheel hardware | transport bottleneck relief |
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| food staples | urgent crews and displaced labor |
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### Separate Financial Opportunities (Non-Cargo)
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These are distinct NEGOTIA and should not be modeled as cargo:
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| Action | Thesis |
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| short-term lending | distressed contractor liquidity |
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| advance purchase contracts | lock future timber supply |
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| debt claim acquisition | buy impaired obligations cheaply |
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| partnership finance | fund rebuild for future share |
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---
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## 10. Linked Scenario Logic (with 0001)
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If SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001 occurred recently:
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- fewer bronze tools available regionally
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- timber processing slower
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- rebuild costs higher
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- cart shortages worsen transport delays
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- price spikes intensify
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Scenarios should compound rather than exist in isolation.
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---
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## 11. Parameters With Confidence Tags
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| Parameter Token | Type | Confidence | Basis |
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| timber_stock_destroyed | resource | High | direct scenario state |
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| yard_damage_level | event | High | direct scenario state |
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| timber_price_capua | market | Medium | standard shortage response |
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| carpentry_capacity | production | Medium | dependent workshops |
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| transport_rate_capua | market | Medium | cart scarcity + urgency |
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| implement_delay_days | temporal | Medium | backlog effects |
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| sabotage_rumor_credibility | information | Low | social inference |
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| state_requisition_pressure | political | Low | contingent context |
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| venture_window_days | opportunity | Medium | route duration + repricing lag |
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| theft_risk_lumber | security | Low | scarcity response |
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---
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## 12. Relations
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```text
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timber_stock_destroyed ↑ -> timber_price_capua ↑
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timber_price_capua ↑ -> import_incentive_ostia_to_capua ↑
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carpentry_capacity ↓ -> building_delay ↑
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wheelwright_capacity ↓ -> transport_rate_capua ↑
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transport_rate_capua ↑ -> food_prices ↑
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implement_delay_days ↑ -> agricultural_output_risk ↑
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rumor_credibility ↑ -> speculative_buying ↑
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state_requisition_pressure ↑ -> civilian_access ↓
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recent_scenario_0001 == true -> recovery_speed ↓
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```
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---
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## 13. Replayability Controls
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Randomize:
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- hidden cause
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- severity
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- stock saved percentage
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- rival merchant speed
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- military urgency
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- road delays
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- theft wave
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- magistrate intervention
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---
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## 14. Repository Use
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Internal simulation substrate. Not player-facing text.
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Use to validate:
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- precursor material economics
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- scenario chaining
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- route-constrained arbitrage
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- hidden information systems
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- cascading shortages
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- regional price propagation
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- cargo vs finance NEGOTIVM distinction
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---
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## 15. Canonical Success Condition
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If the participant stops asking:
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“What burned?”
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and starts asking:
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“What depended on it?”
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then the scenario is functioning correctly.
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