236 lines
6.0 KiB
Markdown
236 lines
6.0 KiB
Markdown
# SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001
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## The Bronze Forge Fire
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### Status: Canonical Scenario Seed
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### Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant)
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### Purpose: Foundational merchant-opportunity scenario driven by urban industrial disruption, rumor, and collateral demand discovery
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### Repository Path: docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001.md
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---
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## 0. Design Intent
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A skilled MERCATOR does not react only to visible loss.
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He reacts to shortages that will emerge elsewhere, before those markets understand why.
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This scenario exists to validate:
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- second-order opportunity recognition
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- route-constrained agency
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- urban supply-chain dependency propagation
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- rumor under uncertainty
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- time-sensitive arbitrage
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- actor-trait effects on recovery
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---
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## 1. Canonical Identifier
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| Field | Value |
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| Scenario ID | `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001` |
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| Title | The Bronze Forge Fire |
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| Token | `bronze_forge_fire` |
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| Domain | merchant |
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| Repeatable | yes |
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| Hidden Truth Variants | yes |
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---
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## 2. Setting
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| Parameter | Value |
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|---|---|
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| Primary City | Ostia |
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| Reachable Venture Route | Ostia -> Capua |
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| District Type | industrial / mixed-use |
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| Nearby Assets | creek, bridge, grazing yard, frontage |
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| Legacy Asset | large bronze forge compound |
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---
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## 3. Historical Basis
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This scenario uses historically plausible urban-industrial structures common to premodern cities:
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- inherited land privileges
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- scarce transport frontage
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- water access
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- old workshops on favorable plots
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- frequent destructive fires
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- contested redevelopment pressure
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- credit stress after disasters
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It is an analogue scenario, not a claim of a specific recorded Ostian incident.
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Confidence: Medium
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Sources: comparative premodern urban fire history; Roman urban workshop archaeology; general ancient commercial scholarship.
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---
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## 4. Visible Event
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At dawn, smoke rises from the bronze forge compound.
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By midday:
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- roof collapse reported
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- fuel stores consumed
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- molds damaged
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- workers displaced
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- adjacent traders disrupted
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- access partially blocked
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Public cause remains unresolved.
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---
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## 5. Hidden Cause Variants
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| Token | Description |
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| accidental_fire | spark, kiln, storage mishap |
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| negligence | poor safety practice |
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| debt_escape | records loss / creditor evasion |
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| coercive_persuasion | pressure to force sale |
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| family_conflict | internal sabotage |
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| competitor_action | rival industrial interest |
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| magistrate_pressure | unofficial clearance |
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Player never receives certainty, only signals.
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---
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## 6. Actor Model — Forge Clan
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| Trait Token | Meaning |
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| asset_rich | controls valuable land |
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| liquidity_poor | lacks rebuild cash |
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| greedy | rejects fair terms |
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| politically_weak | limited protection |
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| strategically_foolish | poor long-term choices |
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| prideful | delays compromise |
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These traits should be reusable actor parameters for later FACTOR/NPC systems.
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---
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## 7. Immediate Effects (0–7 days)
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| Effect | Direction |
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| bronze output | down |
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| tool repair capacity | down |
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| displaced labor | up |
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| scrap availability | up |
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| speculation | up |
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| rumor volume | up |
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---
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## 8. Secondary Effects (7–30 days)
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| Effect | Direction |
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| bronze tool prices in Ostia | up |
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| substitute iron demand | up |
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| timber demand | up |
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| stone demand | up |
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| fuel demand | up |
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| temporary rents | up |
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| creditor leverage | up |
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---
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## 9. Merchant Venture Logic (Ostia -> Capua Only)
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Merchant cannot freely exploit every local opportunity. He can launch the permitted venture route to Capua.
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### Correct Arbitrage Directions
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| Cargo | Direction | Thesis |
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| substitute tools | Ostia -> Capua | sell unaffected stock before Capua reprices |
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| iron stock | Ostia -> Capua | substitution demand spreads outward |
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| hardware / nails | Ostia -> Capua | rebuild ripple and carpentry demand |
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| timber fittings | Ostia -> Capua | construction demand chain |
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| bronze tools | Capua -> Ostia | anticipate Ostia shortage |
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| charcoal / fuel | Capua -> Ostia | rebuild fuel demand |
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---
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## 10. Parameters With Confidence Tags
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| Parameter Token | Type | Confidence | Basis |
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| workshop_output_bronze | production | High | direct scenario state |
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| urban_fire_damage | event | High | direct scenario state |
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| rumor_credibility | information | Medium | inferred social response |
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| rebuild_delay_days | temporal | Medium | depends on cause + finance |
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| timber_price_ostia | market | Medium | standard post-fire demand |
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| iron_substitution_rate | industrial | Low | requires local craft data |
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| displaced_workers_count | labor | Medium | workshop scale estimate |
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| district_access_penalty | movement | Medium | fire cordon / debris |
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| creditor_pressure | financial | Low | sparse direct evidence |
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| tool_price_capua | market | Low | lagged transmission model |
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| venture_window_days | opportunity | Medium | route duration + reaction lag |
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---
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## 11. Relations
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```text
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urban_fire_damage ↑ -> workshop_output_bronze ↓
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workshop_output_bronze ↓ -> bronze_tool_price_ostia ↑
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bronze_tool_price_ostia ↑ -> import_incentive_capua_to_ostia ↑
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bronze scarcity ↑ -> iron_substitution_rate ↑
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rebuild_delay_days ↑ -> timber_price_ostia ↑
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rumor_credibility ↑ -> speculative_buying ↑
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displaced_workers_count ↑ -> wages ↓ (short-term)
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district_access_penalty ↑ -> freight_cost_local ↑
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information_delay_capua > 0 -> temporary arbitrage_window ↑
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```
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---
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## 12. Replayability Controls
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Randomize:
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- hidden cause
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- severity
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- rebuild speed
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- magistrate stance
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- rival merchant response
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- rumor truthfulness
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- transport delays
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---
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## 13. Repository Use
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Internal simulation substrate. Not player-facing text.
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Use to validate:
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- event ingestion
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- market propagation
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- route constraints
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- hidden information systems
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- actor trait systems
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- opportunity windows
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---
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## 14. Canonical Success Condition
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If the participant stops asking:
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“What burned?”
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and starts asking:
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“Who now needs what, where, and when?”
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then the scenario is functioning correctly.
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