otivm/docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0002.md

SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0002

The Capuan Timber Yard Fire

Status: Canonical Scenario Seed

Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant)

Purpose: Merchant-opportunity scenario driven by destruction of upstream material stock, cascading shortages, and route-constrained arbitrage

Repository Path: docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0002.md

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0. Design Intent

Destruction of inputs creates wider cascades than destruction of finished goods.

A timber yard fire affects construction, transport, agriculture, military logistics, and workshop recovery simultaneously. The participant should learn to think in dependencies rather than headlines.

This scenario validates:

• upstream choke-point logic
• multi-sector shortage propagation
• scenario compounding with 0001
• route-constrained NEGOTIVM decisions
• state demand distortion
• time-sensitive arbitrage

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1. Canonical Identifier

Field	Value
Scenario ID	SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0002
Title	The Capuan Timber Yard Fire
Token	capuan_timber_yard_fire
Domain	merchant
Repeatable	yes
Hidden Truth Variants	yes

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2. Setting

Parameter	Value
Primary City	Capua
Venture Route	Ostia -> Capua
Site Type	timber seasoning / cutting / fabrication yard
Stored Stock	planks, beams, wheel timber, handle blanks, wagon parts
Strategic Context	routine military preparation and contractor demand

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3. Historical Basis

Roman Italy required sustained timber flows for:

• construction
• carts and wheels
• agricultural implements
• scaffolding
• river and coastal craft components
• military logistics
• fuel and charcoal production

Contractor yards and timber depots plausibly stored seasoned stock for downstream use or onward shipment.

This scenario is an analogue model, not a claim of a specific recorded Capuan incident.

Confidence: Medium
Sources: Roman logistics scholarship; transport studies; timber demand in antiquity.

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4. Visible Event

Night fire spreads through the Capuan timber yard.

By sunrise:

• plank stacks destroyed
• beams charred or unusable
• wheel stock lost
• handle blanks consumed
• sheds collapsed
• carts trapped or burned
• adjacent workshops disrupted
• guards report suspicious movement or conflicting stories

Public cause unresolved.

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5. Hidden Cause Variants

Token	Description
accidental_fire	lamp, spark, careless storage
contractor_fraud	debt escape through loss
rival_arson	competing supplier
enemy_sabotage	hostile agents
labor_revenge	wage dispute
magistrate_pressure	coercive redevelopment
theft_coverup	crime hidden by fire

Signals only. No certainty.

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6. Immediate Effects (0–7 days)

Effect	Direction
available timber stock	down
carpentry throughput	down
wheelwright capacity	down
cart repair speed	down
urgent buyers	up
speculation	up
rumor volume	up

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7. Secondary Effects (7–30 days)

Effect	Direction
timber prices in Capua	up
transport rates	up
farm implement delays	up
building delays	up
substitute imports	up
theft risk for lumber	up
contractor credit stress	up
state requisition pressure	possible

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8. Tertiary Effects (30+ days)

Effect	Direction
regional forest extraction	up
road congestion	up
poor-quality substitutes used	possible
migration of craftsmen	possible
durable merchant contracts	possible
local political realignment	possible

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9. Merchant Venture Logic (Ostia -> Capua)

Merchant departs Ostia before Capua fully reprices.

Candidate Cargo Ventures

Cargo	Thesis
nails / fasteners	rebuild demand
bronze tools	carpentry recovery
iron tools	substitute demand
rope	hauling operations
pitch / tar	treatment and repair
wheel hardware	transport bottleneck relief
food staples	urgent crews and displaced labor

Separate Financial Opportunities (Non-Cargo)

These are distinct NEGOTIA and should not be modeled as cargo:

Action	Thesis
short-term lending	distressed contractor liquidity
advance purchase contracts	lock future timber supply
debt claim acquisition	buy impaired obligations cheaply
partnership finance	fund rebuild for future share

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10. Linked Scenario Logic (with 0001)

If SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001 occurred recently:

• fewer bronze tools available regionally
• timber processing slower
• rebuild costs higher
• cart shortages worsen transport delays
• price spikes intensify

Scenarios should compound rather than exist in isolation.

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11. Parameters With Confidence Tags

Parameter Token	Type	Confidence	Basis
timber_stock_destroyed	resource	High	direct scenario state
yard_damage_level	event	High	direct scenario state
timber_price_capua	market	Medium	standard shortage response
carpentry_capacity	production	Medium	dependent workshops
transport_rate_capua	market	Medium	cart scarcity + urgency
implement_delay_days	temporal	Medium	backlog effects
sabotage_rumor_credibility	information	Low	social inference
state_requisition_pressure	political	Low	contingent context
venture_window_days	opportunity	Medium	route duration + repricing lag
theft_risk_lumber	security	Low	scarcity response

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12. Relations

timber_stock_destroyed ↑ -> timber_price_capua ↑
timber_price_capua ↑ -> import_incentive_ostia_to_capua ↑
carpentry_capacity ↓ -> building_delay ↑
wheelwright_capacity ↓ -> transport_rate_capua ↑
transport_rate_capua ↑ -> food_prices ↑
implement_delay_days ↑ -> agricultural_output_risk ↑
rumor_credibility ↑ -> speculative_buying ↑
state_requisition_pressure ↑ -> civilian_access ↓
recent_scenario_0001 == true -> recovery_speed ↓

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13. Replayability Controls

Randomize:

• hidden cause
• severity
• stock saved percentage
• rival merchant speed
• military urgency
• road delays
• theft wave
• magistrate intervention

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14. Repository Use

Internal simulation substrate. Not player-facing text.

Use to validate:

• precursor material economics
• scenario chaining
• route-constrained arbitrage
• hidden information systems
• cascading shortages
• regional price propagation
• cargo vs finance NEGOTIVM distinction

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15. Canonical Success Condition

If the participant stops asking:

“What burned?”

and starts asking:

“What depended on it?”

then the scenario is functioning correctly.