6.0 KiB
6.0 KiB
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001
The Bronze Forge Fire
Status: Canonical Scenario Seed
Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant)
Purpose: Foundational merchant-opportunity scenario driven by urban industrial disruption, rumor, and collateral demand discovery
Repository Path: docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001.md
0. Design Intent
A skilled MERCATOR does not react only to visible loss.
He reacts to shortages that will emerge elsewhere, before those markets understand why.
This scenario exists to validate:
- second-order opportunity recognition
- route-constrained agency
- urban supply-chain dependency propagation
- rumor under uncertainty
- time-sensitive arbitrage
- actor-trait effects on recovery
1. Canonical Identifier
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Scenario ID | SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001 |
| Title | The Bronze Forge Fire |
| Token | bronze_forge_fire |
| Domain | merchant |
| Repeatable | yes |
| Hidden Truth Variants | yes |
2. Setting
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary City | Ostia |
| Reachable Venture Route | Ostia -> Capua |
| District Type | industrial / mixed-use |
| Nearby Assets | creek, bridge, grazing yard, frontage |
| Legacy Asset | large bronze forge compound |
3. Historical Basis
This scenario uses historically plausible urban-industrial structures common to premodern cities:
- inherited land privileges
- scarce transport frontage
- water access
- old workshops on favorable plots
- frequent destructive fires
- contested redevelopment pressure
- credit stress after disasters
It is an analogue scenario, not a claim of a specific recorded Ostian incident.
Confidence: Medium
Sources: comparative premodern urban fire history; Roman urban workshop archaeology; general ancient commercial scholarship.
4. Visible Event
At dawn, smoke rises from the bronze forge compound.
By midday:
- roof collapse reported
- fuel stores consumed
- molds damaged
- workers displaced
- adjacent traders disrupted
- access partially blocked
Public cause remains unresolved.
5. Hidden Cause Variants
| Token | Description |
|---|---|
| accidental_fire | spark, kiln, storage mishap |
| negligence | poor safety practice |
| debt_escape | records loss / creditor evasion |
| coercive_persuasion | pressure to force sale |
| family_conflict | internal sabotage |
| competitor_action | rival industrial interest |
| magistrate_pressure | unofficial clearance |
Player never receives certainty, only signals.
6. Actor Model — Forge Clan
| Trait Token | Meaning |
|---|---|
| asset_rich | controls valuable land |
| liquidity_poor | lacks rebuild cash |
| greedy | rejects fair terms |
| politically_weak | limited protection |
| strategically_foolish | poor long-term choices |
| prideful | delays compromise |
These traits should be reusable actor parameters for later FACTOR/NPC systems.
7. Immediate Effects (0–7 days)
| Effect | Direction |
|---|---|
| bronze output | down |
| tool repair capacity | down |
| displaced labor | up |
| scrap availability | up |
| speculation | up |
| rumor volume | up |
8. Secondary Effects (7–30 days)
| Effect | Direction |
|---|---|
| bronze tool prices in Ostia | up |
| substitute iron demand | up |
| timber demand | up |
| stone demand | up |
| fuel demand | up |
| temporary rents | up |
| creditor leverage | up |
9. Merchant Venture Logic (Ostia -> Capua Only)
Merchant cannot freely exploit every local opportunity. He can launch the permitted venture route to Capua.
Correct Arbitrage Directions
| Cargo | Direction | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| substitute tools | Ostia -> Capua | sell unaffected stock before Capua reprices |
| iron stock | Ostia -> Capua | substitution demand spreads outward |
| hardware / nails | Ostia -> Capua | rebuild ripple and carpentry demand |
| timber fittings | Ostia -> Capua | construction demand chain |
| bronze tools | Capua -> Ostia | anticipate Ostia shortage |
| charcoal / fuel | Capua -> Ostia | rebuild fuel demand |
10. Parameters With Confidence Tags
| Parameter Token | Type | Confidence | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| workshop_output_bronze | production | High | direct scenario state |
| urban_fire_damage | event | High | direct scenario state |
| rumor_credibility | information | Medium | inferred social response |
| rebuild_delay_days | temporal | Medium | depends on cause + finance |
| timber_price_ostia | market | Medium | standard post-fire demand |
| iron_substitution_rate | industrial | Low | requires local craft data |
| displaced_workers_count | labor | Medium | workshop scale estimate |
| district_access_penalty | movement | Medium | fire cordon / debris |
| creditor_pressure | financial | Low | sparse direct evidence |
| tool_price_capua | market | Low | lagged transmission model |
| venture_window_days | opportunity | Medium | route duration + reaction lag |
11. Relations
urban_fire_damage ↑ -> workshop_output_bronze ↓
workshop_output_bronze ↓ -> bronze_tool_price_ostia ↑
bronze_tool_price_ostia ↑ -> import_incentive_capua_to_ostia ↑
bronze scarcity ↑ -> iron_substitution_rate ↑
rebuild_delay_days ↑ -> timber_price_ostia ↑
rumor_credibility ↑ -> speculative_buying ↑
displaced_workers_count ↑ -> wages ↓ (short-term)
district_access_penalty ↑ -> freight_cost_local ↑
information_delay_capua > 0 -> temporary arbitrage_window ↑
12. Replayability Controls
Randomize:
- hidden cause
- severity
- rebuild speed
- magistrate stance
- rival merchant response
- rumor truthfulness
- transport delays
13. Repository Use
Internal simulation substrate. Not player-facing text.
Use to validate:
- event ingestion
- market propagation
- route constraints
- hidden information systems
- actor trait systems
- opportunity windows
14. Canonical Success Condition
If the participant stops asking:
“What burned?”
and starts asking:
“Who now needs what, where, and when?”
then the scenario is functioning correctly.