342 lines
7.2 KiB
Markdown
342 lines
7.2 KiB
Markdown
# RUMOR-SYSTEM-0001
|
||
## Rumor, Information Delay, and Informal Markets
|
||
### Status: Canonical Economy Seed
|
||
### Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant)
|
||
### Purpose: Define how uncertain information moves through the city, alters prices, creates opportunity, and misleads actors
|
||
### Repository Path: docs/economy/RUMOR-SYSTEM-0001.md
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 0. Design Intent
|
||
|
||
Markets do not wait for certainty.
|
||
|
||
Most economic decisions are made before facts are known. Men act on smoke, absences, raised voices, late carts, unusual purchases, and guarded expressions.
|
||
|
||
This document prevents a false simulation where all actors receive perfect information at the same time.
|
||
|
||
In OTIVM:
|
||
|
||
- rumor is an economic input
|
||
- ignorance has geography
|
||
- truth arrives unevenly
|
||
- reputation alters belief
|
||
- opportunity often exists only during confusion
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 1. Definition of Rumor
|
||
|
||
Rumor is not merely falsehood.
|
||
|
||
Rumor is socially transmitted, incomplete information with uncertain accuracy.
|
||
|
||
It may be true, partly true, outdated, intentionally distorted, a misinterpreted signal, or speculation mistaken for fact.
|
||
|
||
A rumor can move markets even when false.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 2. Why Rumor Matters Economically
|
||
|
||
Before official confirmation:
|
||
|
||
- prices move
|
||
- buyers hesitate
|
||
- lenders tighten terms
|
||
- hoarding begins
|
||
- labour shifts districts
|
||
- transport reroutes
|
||
- opportunists buy quietly
|
||
|
||
The first reaction is often based on rumor, not truth.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 3. Primary Sources of Rumor in Ostia
|
||
|
||
| Source Node | Typical Information |
|
||
|---|---|
|
||
| BALNEA | status shifts, meetings, disputes, political whispers |
|
||
| riverfront | arriving cargo, delays, losses, foreign news |
|
||
| HORREA | shortages, inventory pressure, distress selling |
|
||
| workshops | fires, wages, tool scarcity, output decline |
|
||
| taverns / cauponae | labour news, theft, street violence |
|
||
| legal forum | debts, seizures, petitions, enforcement |
|
||
| stables / yards | cart shortages, route condition, mule health |
|
||
| households / servants | private affairs entering public speech |
|
||
|
||
No source is perfectly reliable.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 4. Information Classes
|
||
|
||
| Class | Meaning |
|
||
|---|---|
|
||
| signal | directly observed fact, such as visible smoke |
|
||
| report | witness says event occurred |
|
||
| inference | likely consequence guessed from fact |
|
||
| embellishment | dramatic additions |
|
||
| agenda_rumor | shaped to benefit speaker |
|
||
| denial | false minimization or concealment |
|
||
|
||
Example:
|
||
|
||
Smoke over forge = signal.
|
||
“The owner fled with debts” = rumor.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 5. Core Parameters
|
||
|
||
| Token | Type | Meaning |
|
||
|---|---|---|
|
||
| rumor_velocity | city | speed of spread |
|
||
| rumor_accuracy | scenario | closeness to truth |
|
||
| source_credibility | actor/relation | trustworthiness of speaker |
|
||
| information_delay | relation | days before actor hears usable news |
|
||
| distortion_rate | city | tendency of message to mutate |
|
||
| market_sensitivity | city/good | how quickly prices react |
|
||
| speech_weight | actor | how strongly others believe speaker |
|
||
| secrecy_pressure | scenario | incentives to hide truth |
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 6. Speech Weight
|
||
|
||
Not all voices carry equally.
|
||
|
||
A claim from a respected man may outweigh three correct claims from porters.
|
||
|
||
Speech weight affected by:
|
||
|
||
- AVCTORITAS
|
||
- FAMA
|
||
- office held
|
||
- wealth display
|
||
- proven past accuracy
|
||
- group prejudice
|
||
- confidence of delivery
|
||
|
||
Thus:
|
||
|
||
A freedman may know first.
|
||
A noble may be believed first.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 7. Information Delay
|
||
|
||
Truth moves through time.
|
||
|
||
Example: Capua timber fire.
|
||
|
||
| Actor | Delay |
|
||
|---|---|
|
||
| contractor courier | 1–2 days |
|
||
| connected merchant | 2–4 days |
|
||
| ordinary market trader | 3–6 days |
|
||
| distant rural buyer | longer |
|
||
|
||
The actor with shorter delay can profit.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 8. Distortion Mechanics
|
||
|
||
As stories move, they mutate.
|
||
|
||
```text
|
||
distance ↑ -> distortion ↑
|
||
retellings ↑ -> distortion ↑
|
||
panic ↑ -> distortion ↑
|
||
political_interest ↑ -> distortion ↑
|
||
trusted_witness_present -> distortion ↓
|
||
multiple_independent_reports -> distortion ↓
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
Example:
|
||
|
||
Small warehouse fire becomes “entire district lost.”
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 9. Price Reaction Model
|
||
|
||
```text
|
||
price_change =
|
||
scarcity_expectation
|
||
+ fear
|
||
+ hoarding
|
||
+ transport_uncertainty
|
||
- trusted_reassurance
|
||
- visible_replacement_supply
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
Meaning:
|
||
|
||
Even false rumors can raise prices if believed long enough.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 10. Merchant Use Cases
|
||
|
||
### 10.1 Good Use
|
||
|
||
Actor asks:
|
||
|
||
- what is certainly known?
|
||
- who benefits from this story?
|
||
- what second-order shortage follows?
|
||
- who has independent confirmation?
|
||
- how long before truth spreads?
|
||
|
||
### 10.2 Bad Use
|
||
|
||
Actor asks only:
|
||
|
||
- is it true?
|
||
|
||
This is too narrow. Even false rumors can create real temporary opportunity.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 11. Example: Bronze Forge Fire
|
||
|
||
### Immediate Known Signal
|
||
|
||
Smoke visible.
|
||
|
||
### Rumors Within Hours
|
||
|
||
- bronze forge destroyed
|
||
- owner insolvent
|
||
- sabotage by iron interests
|
||
- workers dead
|
||
- stock saved secretly
|
||
- magistrate forcing sale
|
||
|
||
### Rational Merchant Questions
|
||
|
||
- tool supply reduced?
|
||
- rebuild timber demand rising?
|
||
- creditors exposed?
|
||
- iron substitute demand imminent?
|
||
- who knows the stock survived?
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 12. Example Dialogue Logic
|
||
|
||
> “I heard the forge burned.”
|
||
|
||
Low value statement.
|
||
|
||
> “I saw smoke, three collapsed beams, and carts removing molds.”
|
||
|
||
High value statement.
|
||
|
||
> “I sold nails before noon.”
|
||
|
||
Highest value statement — reveals belief through action.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 13. Roman Land and Physical Detail in Rumor
|
||
|
||
Rumor often uses concrete measures.
|
||
|
||
Use Roman units:
|
||
|
||
- IUGERUM (land area)
|
||
- PASSUS (distance)
|
||
- LIBRA (weight)
|
||
- MODIVS (dry measure)
|
||
|
||
Example:
|
||
|
||
> “They mean to plant six iugera behind the forge for shaft wood.”
|
||
|
||
This is stronger than vague speech.
|
||
|
||
Specificity increases believability, even when false.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 14. Social Filtering by Background
|
||
|
||
| Background | Hears Best |
|
||
|---|---|
|
||
| Former Legionary | movement disruption, guard failures |
|
||
| Freedman Trader | distress selling, salvage, street truth |
|
||
| Noble Younger Son | family scandal, patron moves |
|
||
| Failed Magistrate | debts, permits, seizures |
|
||
| Camp Logistician | shortages, carts, labour demand |
|
||
| Guild Scribe | insolvency, collateral, unpaid accounts |
|
||
|
||
Same city, different information worlds.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 15. Simulation Rules
|
||
|
||
### Do Not Give Perfect Knowledge
|
||
|
||
Actors should infer, not receive certainty.
|
||
|
||
### Do Not Make Rumor Pure Randomness
|
||
|
||
Rumor must emerge from actual events, incentives, and networks.
|
||
|
||
### Do Not Make Truth Instantly Win
|
||
|
||
Falsehood can dominate briefly.
|
||
|
||
### Reward Verification
|
||
|
||
Independent confirmation should create advantage.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 16. Relations
|
||
|
||
```text
|
||
rumor_velocity ↑ -> price_adjustment_speed ↑
|
||
distortion_rate ↑ -> false_opportunity ↑
|
||
information_delay ↓ -> merchant_edge ↑
|
||
speech_weight ↑ -> market_reaction ↑
|
||
multiple_sources_confirm ↑ -> rumor_accuracy ↑
|
||
panic ↑ -> hoarding ↑
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 17. Repository Use
|
||
|
||
Internal simulation substrate. Not player-facing prose.
|
||
|
||
Use to support:
|
||
|
||
- prologue BALNEA dialogue
|
||
- city event reactions
|
||
- price shocks
|
||
- hidden information systems
|
||
- actor asymmetry
|
||
- scenario chaining
|
||
- merchant skill differentiation
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 18. Canonical Success Condition
|
||
|
||
If the participant stops asking:
|
||
|
||
“Is the rumor true?”
|
||
|
||
and starts asking:
|
||
|
||
“Who heard it first, who profits if believed, and what changes before certainty arrives?”
|
||
|
||
then this document is functioning correctly.
|