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docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space.md
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# CORPUS-0007
## Rival Buys The Cart Space
### Status: Training Corpus Seed
### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples
### Purpose: Teach that a rival can change the cost, timing, or viability of a venture before the trader acts
### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space.md
---
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia plans to send oil to Capua.
The expected margin is modest but workable.
Before he reserves transport, a rival trader buys the best available cart space.
The oil price in Capua may still be favorable, but the conditions of the venture have changed.
The opportunity did not disappear because the market changed first.
It changed because another actor acted first.
---
## 1. Known Initial Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---:|
| Origin | Ostia |
| Destination | Capua |
| Good | oil |
| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses |
| Expected sale price in Capua | 20 asses |
| Expected cart share | 4 asses |
| Other expected costs | 3 asses |
Initial expected total cost:
```text
10 + 4 + 3 = 17 asses
```
Initial expected result:
```text
20 - 17 = 3 asses profit
```
The venture appears worthwhile.
---
## 2. Rival Action
A rival trader reserves the best cart space before the trader acts.
The remaining options are worse:
| Transport Option | New Cost | Effect |
|---|---:|---|
| later cart | 4 asses | two-day delay |
| inferior cart | 5 asses | higher breakage risk |
| private hire | 8 asses | immediate but expensive |
The same oil no longer has the same venture conditions.
---
## 3. Variant A — Later Cart
The trader waits two days for the later cart.
Storage cost increases by 2 asses.
A rival may reach Capua first.
```text
purchase price: 10 asses
cart share: 4 asses
other costs: 3 asses
added storage: 2 asses
-------------------------------
total cost: 19 asses
sale value: 20 asses
result: 1 as profit
```
The venture still profits, but margin has narrowed.
---
## 4. Variant B — Inferior Cart
The trader uses the inferior cart.
Transport cost rises and one small loss occurs during movement.
```text
purchase price: 10 asses
inferior cart: 5 asses
other costs: 3 asses
loss adjustment: 2 asses
-------------------------------
total cost: 20 asses
sale value: 20 asses
result: 0 profit
```
The venture breaks even.
---
## 5. Variant C — Private Hire
The trader hires private transport immediately.
```text
purchase price: 10 asses
private hire: 8 asses
other costs: 3 asses
-------------------------------
total cost: 21 asses
sale value: 20 asses
result: 1 as loss
```
The fastest option produces a loss unless speed creates other strategic value.
---
## 6. Correct Model Behavior
The model should reason:
- the opportunity was not static
- rival action changed available transport
- changed transport altered cost, delay, and risk
- the same purchase and sale prices can produce different outcomes
- acting later can narrow or erase margin
- rivalry can create loss without direct conflict
---
## 7. Incorrect Model Behavior
The model should not:
- assume cart space remains available
- treat transport cost as fixed after the first estimate
- ignore rival timing
- assume the trader can always choose the best option
- treat the expected 3-ass profit as guaranteed
- ignore delay caused by unavailable transport
---
## 8. Layer-0 Concepts Used
This example uses:
- `CORPUS-0001-trade-requires-two-locations`
- `CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price`
- `CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost`
- `CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
- `CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
- `CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
- `CORPUS-0019-success-has-no-boundary-failure-has-a-hard-stop`
---
## 9. Success Condition
If the model sees a profitable venture and asks whether rivals can change transport, timing, or margin before the trader acts, this file is functioning correctly.